By Oscar Casas, CFP®, CRPC®, MPAS®, ABFP℠
Trying to outperform the market with your investments might sound straightforward. Common intuition suggests that all you have to do is sell your stocks when economic conditions are down and reinvest when they go up. It appears to be a simple strategy, right?
But the truth is that attempting to time the market is a leading reason why most individual investors underperform the market. Successful market timing requires selling at the right moment (before a downturn) and buying back in at the right moment (before an upswing). This essentially means you need to make two correct predictions, which is an extremely challenging task.
While it can be tempting to try your hand at timing the market, the truth is it doesn’t actually work. Here are 3 reasons why and how you can strategize instead.
Market Timing Is Consistently Inconsistent
Timing the market usually involves attempting to “buy low and sell high” by analyzing current market trends for inefficiencies or volatility indicators. This strategy may work sometimes, but it is far from perfect. Not only do you have to guess when to buy in, but you also have to guess when to sell. That means for every gain, you have to be right twice to make timing the market worth it. Unfortunately, market bottoms can only be truly spotted in hindsight, and timing the market is often closer to playing the lottery than it is to an educated guess.
Timing the Market Is Expensive
Timing the market can also be expensive. Depending on your account type, asset class, and where you are executing your trades, you will likely be charged for every purchase and sale you make, and that’s on top of any taxes owed on gains. The more frequently you trade, the higher your transaction costs will be.
If you held the assets for less than a year, your gain will be taxed as ordinary income at your marginal tax rate, which can be as high as 37% for high-income earners. Long-term gains are taxed at a preferential rate. Regardless of your tax rate, your market timing must still be right more often than not just to cover the cost of your guess.
You Will Miss Out on Compound Growth & Market Rebounds
A recent study by Schwab Center for Financial Research found that bad market timing is worse than investing immediately, regardless of the market conditions at the time of investing. This indicates that even in market downturns, or just before a downturn, investors who invest immediately and remain invested will be better off than those who stay on the sidelines or attempt to time the market.
Take a look at Schwab’s graph below, which shows just how much more a fully invested portfolio earns over the course of 19 years. It would earn approximately $14,000 more in growth than a portfolio with bad market timing, and $91,000 more than a portfolio that stays in cash. The only investor who performs better is the one with perfect timing—but since we already know that perfect timing is impossible, investing immediately is the next best strategy.
What’s more, over time that extra $14,000 or $91,000 will have the opportunity to grow even more thanks to compounded interest. Even if the market fluctuates in the short term, the odds are high that a solid investment strategy will grow over time.
Another graph by Hartford Funds and Morningstar shows what happens if you miss the best days in the market, which often closely follow a major downturn and can be just as difficult to predict. An investor who missed the 10 best days in the market between 1992 and 2021 would have earned 54% less than someone who was fully invested during the same time period.
Someone who missed the 30 best market days would have earned a whopping $172,000 (83%) less than their fully invested counterpart. The research is based on a $10,000 initial investment, but these numbers would be much more dramatic if you were dealing with a $100,000 or even a $1,000,000 portfolio.
The time value of money tells us that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow, and this is certainly the case when it comes to investing. The longer you are invested, the more likely you are to ride out the day-to-day market fluctuations and experience growth instead.
Ready to Make the Most of Your Money?
If you’re aiming to maximize your financial strategy, don’t miss out on growth opportunities by attempting to time the market. At Tranquility Path Investment Advisors, we’re dedicated to assisting our clients in optimizing their portfolios and giving them the confidence to make informed long-term financial choices. We like to call ourselves their partner in tranquil planning. For more information on managing market volatility and market timing concerns, we invite you to reach out today. Schedule an introductory meeting online or call us at (732) 856-4324.
About Oscar
Oscar Casas is the chief executive officer at Tranquility Path Investment Advisors, an independent Registered Investment Advisor firm dedicated to putting their clients first, always. Oscar has over a decade of experience helping clients plan for a confident retirement. He is known for being an empathetic and compassionate listener and for prioritizing his clients’ needs and goals above all else. He acts as a coach, advising his pre-retiree and retiree clients through all the ups and downs on their financial journey. He loves that he has the opportunity to make a difference in people’s lives and take some of the stress off their shoulders.
Oscar has a bachelor’s degree in finance, a master’s degree in personal financial planning, and is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor℠, Master Planner Advanced StudiesSM and Accredited Behavioral Finance Professional℠ professional. When he’s not working, you can find him enjoying the outdoors with his three children. He is an avid tennis player who also loves golf, the beach, snowboarding, traveling, and volunteering with the Scouts.
